Friday, August 31, 2007

UNCONFIRMED RUMOUR: What's happening on Tuesday?

Some crazy rumours flying around about Labour MPs rushing back from holidays, newspaper advert order being placed, and Number 10 driving something or other for a Tuesday deadline. Could be nonsense designed to get CCHQ into a spin over a bad poll, or is Gordon Brown about to really surprise everyone and blow-out the entire conference season?

Update: Iain Dale has an interesting bit about a rumour from the Department of Health that links in with the "Tuesday" rumour here.

Update II: A "No 10 source" has told the Times, "There is no election announcement next week, this is just a diversionary tactic in the face of the Tory meltdown".


Anonymous said...
31 Aug 2007 18:51:00  

This is bollocks - there is not a smidgin of a shift in the betting exchanges - this is just an end of the silly season story to tide over the meeja until the beginning of the month of September, when normal service can be resumed.

Martin Curtis said...
31 Aug 2007 19:03:00  

I can see the sense of this - the conference season will see level coverage, Cameron's ability and charisma will come out very strong. Gordon will likely lose out of the conference season.

However, judging by the UK polling blog today, it may not be such a sensible thing for Brown.

dizzy said...
31 Aug 2007 19:10:00  

Anon, you're right that it may be a media spin rumour, as I said. Although just because the betting market has not moved doesn't mean it won't happen either.

Anonymous said...
31 Aug 2007 19:15:00  

Fair point Dizbert, and I've been wrong plenty of times before...

However I've been reading a good [though not great] book called the 'Wisdom of Crowds' and it talks about things like the Iowa Electronic Markets project, an early electoral 'market' along the lines of celebdaq.

If there really was a major, major announcement on Tuesday it is almost certain that someone would have tried to make a bit of dosh on it via Betfair. [even if they only suspected, rather than having actual knowledge, that it was a General Election announcement.

But then maybe Gordon is worried about a mini 'Winter of Discontent' ?

Seems unlikely that he would go to the country with the nights drawing in - surely some geeks out there can tell us if there is any sort of precedent for this ??

Anonymous said...
31 Aug 2007 19:23:00  

Humble apologies !

Betting has moved from 4.4 to 4.0-1 on a 2007 election in less than 10 mins !

Some arse-covering going on methinks.

Where is Mike Smithson when you need him..

dizzy said...
31 Aug 2007 19:27:00  

Mike's gone on holiday. I don't disagree with your points either. My gut tells me this is designed to make CCHQ spin like headless chickens... but it's in Gordon's prerogative right. It certainly sounds like, given Iain's post, something is happening on Tuesday, the question is what.

Anonymous said...
31 Aug 2007 19:30:00  

But the question one has to ask is how on earth Labour would finance such an election, given that they've had to repay some of their loans, and the income stream has dried up after the 'Loans for Lordships' fiasco ??

Or have they built up a war-chest from the 'PFI' boys like Cohen et al ? Or can Gordon tap-up boys who are set to lose big time on Government contracts like the ID / NHS databases which don't look like such sure bets under the Tories ??

One thing is sure, El Gordo will have thought about such things while brooding about how to get into Tony Blair's chair...

Anonymous said...
31 Aug 2007 19:43:00  

Could the 'big announcement' be something to do with a referendum on Europe? Would be a gift to Cameron but would show the Tories to have splits just as Labour do. Would also allow him to neutralise the issue ahead of a Spring poll.

boanerges said...
31 Aug 2007 20:47:00  

I'm with anon 7.43PM on this.
It fits his MO. He will offer a referendum but the question will be loaded, a sort of Sign up to the Treaty or Leave the EU. That's why Vaz was wheeled out today. He wasnt advocating a referendum on the Treaty but on wether we want to be at the heart of Europe. This is Brown shifting the terms of the debate onto an area where he thinks he can win. Any potential Labour rebels will toe the party line. If we are offered a loaded referendum a possible counter could be to campaign for people not to vote. Therefore whichever 'loaded' favoured by the government is passed they will lose if the turnout is 25% for example

Anonymous said...
31 Aug 2007 21:25:00  


you are bang on. listen to any questions tonight and you have the answer. audience asked if they would vote no to the treaty; overwhelming majority. asked if they would leave EU ; majority said no.

vaz is the single most devious, corrupt, spiteful and untrustworthy MP (after dennis Macshane obviously). they will call a ref and turn it into a scaremongering in/out vote. lose 3million jobs, racist card played etc etc.

and you know what they MIGHT still lose. i despair for this country

Ralph said...
31 Aug 2007 21:44:00  

And this when a Populus poll has him only one point ahead.

I'm with boanerges, it's an EU referendum of the 'Do you support the EU treaty or are you a child molester?

Anonymous said...
31 Aug 2007 21:57:00  

I do hope Brown has been suckered into an early election. The voting public might have serious second thoughts about voting for labour if they are given the chance in a real election rather than a poll.

Anonymous said...
31 Aug 2007 22:07:00  

its a ref on the treaty, dressed up as in/out, and they have no downside. if its 'no' its only to the treaty meaning more red lines and the project carries on. if its a yes then the whole project comes to fruition. if the UK votes YES who else in europe will vote it down??

the end is nigh. socialist scum

Newmania said...
31 Aug 2007 22:56:00  

....(earlier to day on this very blog I wrote ) I think it is this that will make Brown go early which I am now convinced he is going to do .........

hmmm ?

Chris Paul said...
31 Aug 2007 23:13:00  

June 2009 ... beautiful trolling action from the Labour machine. And the Tories buy the dummy - er, hook, line and sinker.

Mountjoy said...
31 Aug 2007 23:21:00  

Dizzy, that is unbelievable, but then have they seen the Populus poll that has the Conservative Party has been forced to release (Lab 37%, Con 36%, LD 16%)? If you’ll excuse the html, I have undertaken some analysis of the regional variations which shows Tory advance in the South and Midlands and Labour not really moving forward anywhere apart from Scotland. Brown must be a kamikaze if he’s going to go for a snap poll!

troll feeder said...
31 Aug 2007 23:41:00  

Chris Paul alert!!!! Pretend he's not there - because he isn't really, anyway. He's a figment of his own imagination

William Wilberfarce said...
1 Sep 2007 00:21:00  

Mabe a combination of the two!
If the Sub prime crisis spreads, and affects house prices and spending, the long awaited recession could hit, if it does Brown knows he would take the full blame, (rightly or not) Labour would get slaughtered.
What Vaz actually said was hold a referendum at the same time as a general election.
Maybe Brown thinks this is a good as it is likely to get.
Though I personally wouldn't put anything past the sneaky, double dealing toad.

But lets see on Tuesday.

I'll wage 50p each way.


Cleast Intwood said...
1 Sep 2007 02:26:00  

boanerges, I think you are right on the money. All my alarm bells started when I read about Vaz's comments: I knew there had to be something behind it, I never usually agree with ANYTHING that vile specimen comes out with. (And, reassuringly, it appears I still don't.)

boanerges said...
1 Sep 2007 08:23:00  

I apologise for the gibberish at the end of my earlier post. What I was trying to say is that if the referendum is a Vote for the Treaty or leave the EU choice or similar, many people who are against the treaty may vote for it as they are not sure about leaving it altogether. If the turnout is embarrassingly low because all the No to the Treaty voters have stayed away, it will be easy to argue Brown has no mandate. People should and will be made aware that they are being manipulated. All those anti treaty but stay in the EU voters would probably use the GE as a way to vent their fury on the Government for its obvious spinnig on the issue. It would also avoid calamity at home as the Tories wouldnt have to campaign on an Out of the EU ticket

Fidothedog said...
2 Sep 2007 01:37:00  

If anything happens Newport MP Jessica "Just call me Jess" Morden will forget to turn up.

Paul "Caught lying an had to pay out 36K in libel" Flynn wont be invited and will sulk on his blogsite. is a participant in the Amazon Europe S.à.r.l. Associates Programme, an affiliate advertising programme designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to